Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the central front in a much broader campaign to weaken the West and reshape the international order, according to foreign-policy analyst Hanna Notte.
In her book, “We Shall Outlast Them: Putin’s Global Campaign to Defeat the West,” Notte argues that Russia’s authoritarian government has reorganized its foreign policy around sustaining the war until Ukraine’s Western supporters lose the money, political will or unity to continue.
Putin initially expected a short war and rapid victory after launching the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Instead, Ukraine resisted, NATO expanded to include Finland and Sweden, and Russia suffered enormous military losses and unprecedented Western sanctions.
But Russia adapted. Notte documents how Moscow assembled a “shadow fleet” of tankers to evade restrictions on its oil, acquired Iranian-designed drone technology and obtained weapons from North Korea. China supplied important dual-use goods, while countries including India dramatically increased their purchases of Russian oil.
Russia has also employed nuclear threats, disinformation and suspected sabotage and cyberoperations intended to intimidate European governments and erode public support for Ukraine. In Putin’s telling, Russia is resisting Western domination and accelerating the emergence of a multipolar world.
Notte emphasizes, however, that this is not simply a story of Russian success. European governments have largely maintained their support for Ukraine, while Russia’s prewar influence has declined in parts of the Middle East and former Soviet Union.
The war has strained Russia’s economy, consumed military resources, depleted it’s young adult male population and made Moscow increasingly dependent on Beijing and other partners.
Russia has proven more resilient than many Western governments expected, but Putin’s effort to subjugate Ukraine has also diminished Russian power, economy and standing in the world.
Notte argues that Putin is wagering that his dictatorship can endure casualties and economic pain longer than democratic societies can sustain a costly, prolonged defense of Ukraine.
Guest:
Hanna Notte is a foreign policy analyst and Russia expert based in Berlin. She serves as the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and is a senior associate with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is the author of the book "We Shall Outlast Them, Putin's Global Campaign to Defeat the West."
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This interview will be recorded live on Monday, September 21, 2026, at 12:00 p.m.
